Using the Optimal Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve to Design a Predictive Genetic Test, Exemplified with Type 2 Diabetes

Current extensive genetic research into common complex diseases, especially with the completion of genome-wide association studies, is bringing to light many novel genetic risk loci. These new discoveries, along with previously known genetic risk variants, offer an important opportunity for researchers to improve health care. We describe a method of quick evaluation of these new findings for potential clinical practice by designing a new predictive genetic test, estimating its classification accuracy, and determining the sample size required for the verification of this accuracy. The proposed predictive test is asymptotically more powerful than tests built on any other existing method and can be extended to scenarios where loci are linked or interact. We illustrate the approach for the case of type 2 diabetes. We incorporate recently discovered risk factors into the proposed test and find a potentially better predictive genetic test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the proposed test is estimated to be higher (AUC = 0.671) than for the existing test (AUC = 0.580)

A quantitative linkage score for an association study following a linkage analysis

BACKGROUND: Currently, a commonly used strategy for mapping complex quantitative traits is to use a genome-wide linkage analysis to narrow suspected genes to regions on a scale of centiMorgans (cM), followed by an association analysis to fine map the genetic variation in regions showing linkage. Two important questions arise in the design and the resulting inference at the association stage of this sequential procedure: (1) how should we design an efficient association study given the information provided by the previous linkage study? and (2) can an association in a linkage region explain, in part, the detected linkage signal? RESULTS: We derive a quantitative linkage score (QLS) based on Haseman-Elston regression (Haseman and Elston 1972) and make use of this score to address both questions. In designing an association study, the selection of a subsample from the linkage study sample can be guided by the linkage information summarized in the QLS. When heterogeneity exists, we show that selection based on the QLS can increase the proportion of sample individuals from the subpopulation affected by a disease allele and therefore greatly improves the power of the association study. For the resulting inference, we frame as a hypothesis test the question of whether a linkage signal in a region can be in part explained by a marker allele. A simple one sided paired t-statistic is defined by comparing the two sets of QLSs obtained with/without modeling a marker association: a significant difference indicates that the marker can at least partly account for the detected linkage. We also show that this statistic can be used to detect a spurious association. CONCLUSION: All our results suggest that a careful examination of QLSs should be helpful for understanding the results of both association and linkage studies

Haseman-Elston weighted by marker informativity

In the Haseman-Elston approach the squared phenotypic difference is regressed on the proportion of alleles shared identical by descent (IBD) to map a quantitative trait to a genetic marker. In applications the IBD distribution is estimated and usually cannot be determined uniquely owing to incomplete marker information. At Genetic Analysis Workshop (GAW) 13, Jacobs et al. [BMC Genet 2003, 4(Suppl 1):S82] proposed to improve the power of the Haseman-Elston algorithm by weighting for information available from marker genotypes. The authors did not show, however, the validity of the employed asymptotic distribution. In this paper, we use the simulated data provided for GAW 14 and show that weighting Haseman-Elston by marker information results in increased type I error rates. Specifically, we demonstrate that the number of significant findings throughout the chromosome is significantly increased with weighting schemes. Furthermore, we show that the classical Haseman-Elston method keeps its nominal significance level when applied to the same data. We therefore recommend to use Haseman-Elston with marker informativity weights only in conjunction with empirical p-values. Whether this approach in fact yields an increase in power needs to be investigated further

A Variance Component Based Multi-marker Association Test Using Family and Unrelated Data

Background: Incorporating family data in genetic association studies has become increasingly appreciated, especially for its potential value in testing rare variants. We introduce here a variance-component based association test that can test multiple common or rare variants jointly using both family and unrelated samples. Results: The proposed approach implemented in our R package aggregates or collapses the information across a region based on genetic similarity instead of genotype scores, which avoids the power loss when the effects are in different directions or have different association strengths. The method is also able to effectively leverage the LD information in a region and it can produce a test statistic with an adaptively estimated number of degrees of freedom. Our method can readily allow for the adjustment of non-genetic contributions to the familial similarity, as well as multiple covariates. Conclusions: We demonstrate through simulations that the proposed method achieves good performance in terms of Type I error control and statistical power. The method is implemented in the R package “fassoc”, which provides a useful tool for data analysis and exploration

Fine-mapping using the weighted average method for a case-control study

We present a new method for fine-mapping a disease susceptibility locus using a case-control design. The new method, termed the weighted average (WA) statistic, averages the Cochran-Armitage (CA) trend test statistic and the difference between the Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium test statistic for cases and controls (the HWD trend). The main characteristics of the WA statistic are that it improves on the weaknesses, and maintains the strengths, of both the CA trend test and the HWD trend test. Data from three different populations in the Genetic Analysis Workshop 14 (GAW14) simulated dataset (Aipotu, Karangar, and Danacaa) were first subjected to model-free linkage analysis to find regions exhibiting linkage. Then, for fine-scale mapping, 140 SNPs within the significant linkage regions were analyzed with the WA test statistic on replicates of the three populations, both separately and combined. The regions that were significant in the multipoint linkage analysis were also significant in this fine-scale mapping. The most significant regions that were obtained using the WA statistic were regions in chromosome 3 (B03T3056–B03T3058, p-value < 1 × 10(-10 )) and chromosome 9 (B09T8332–B09T8334, p-value 1 × 10(-6 )). Based on the results of the simulated GAW14 data, the WA test statistic showed good performance and could narrow down the region containing the susceptibility locus. However, the strength of the signal depends on both the strength of the linkage disequilibrium and the heterozygosity of the linked marker

Two-stage analysis strategy for identifying the IgM quantitative trait locus

Genetic association studies offer an opportunity to find genetic variants underlying complex human diseases. Various tests have been developed to improve their power. However, none of these tests is uniformly best and it is usually unclear at the outset what test is best for a specific dataset. For example, Hotelling's T2 test is best for normally distributed data, but it can lose considerable power when normality is not met. To achieve satisfactory power in most cases, without compromising the overall significance level, we propose to adopt a two-stage adaptive analysis strategy – several statistics are compared on a portion of the samples at the first stage and the most powerful statistic is then used for the remaining samples. We evaluated this procedure by mapping the quantitative trait locus of IgM with the simulated data in Genetic Analysis Workshop 15 Problem 3. The results show that the gain in power of the two-stage adaptive analysis procedure could be considerable when the initial choice of test statistic is wrong, whereas the loss is relatively small in the case that the optimal test chosen initially is correct

Optimizing the evidence for linkage by permuting marker order

We developed a new marker-reordering algorithm to find the best order of fine-mapping markers for multipoint linkage analysis. The algorithm searches for the best order of fine-mapping markers such that the sum of the squared differences in identity-by-descent distribution between neighboring markers is minimized. To test this algorithm, we examined its effect on the evidence for linkage in the simulated and the Collaborative Studies on Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA) data. We found enhanced evidence for linkage with the reordered map at the true location in the simulated data (p-value decreased from 1.16 × 10(-9 )to 9.70 × 10(-10)). Analysis of the White population from the COGA data with the reordered map for alcohol dependence led to a significant change of the linkage signal (p = 0.0365 decreased to p = 0.0039) on chromosome 1 between marker D1S1592 and D1S1598. Our results suggest that reordering fine-mapping markers in candidate regions when the genetic map is uncertain can be a critical step when considering a dense map